NOUS44 KMRX 211342
PNSMRX
423-586-1964 (MEDIA ONLY)
423-586-2296 (ALL OTHER CALLS)
DROUGHT STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
900 AM EDT FRI DEC 21 2007
NOTE! NEW DROUGHT INFORMATION FOR THIS REGION IS LOCATED ONLINE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX/HYDRO/DROUGHT07/MAIN.PHP
...DROUGHT STATEMENT FOR EAST TENNESSEE, EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA,
AND CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES OF EXTREME WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
NOTE: THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO ISSUED UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MEMESFMRX
OR WMO HEADER FGUS74 KMRX...
(FOR GRAPHIC DISPLAYS ON THE INTERNET GO TO
WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML)
INTRODUCTION...(NOTE: ALL GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTIONS ARE APPROXIMATE)
D4 (EXCEPTIONAL) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN THE FOLLOWING AREAS: IN NORTH
CAROLINA, IN CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES; OVER MOST OF EXTREME SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA, EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF LEE COUNTY; IN TENNESSEE
OVER THE SOUTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, EXTREME SOUTHEAST COUNTIES, AND IN
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE EAST OF A LINE FROM ABOUT GATLINBURG TO MORRISTOWN TO
SNEEDVILLE.
D3 (EXTREME) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER THE BULK OF THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, MOST OF THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND THE
NORTHERN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.
D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER A THIN SLIVER OF SCOTT COUNTY,
TENNESSEE ALONG THE KENTUCKY LINE.
FIRE SITUATION...
WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF RECENT RAINS, THE COLDER WEATHER, AND WETTED FUELS,
THE FIRE DANGER IS REDUCED. IN SOME AREAS, BURN BANS REMAIN IN EFFECT. CONTACT
LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS IN YOUR AREA FOR MORE INFORMATION.
PRECIPITATION STATUS...
RAINFALL AT INDIVIDUAL POINTS IS NOT ALWAYS AN ACCURATE REFLECTION OF AN
AREA`S PRECIPITATION. RAINFALL OVER LARGE AREAS IS A MORE REALISTIC
REPRESENTATION. BELOW ARE THE DATA FOR THE MAIN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OBSERVATION POINTS FOR THE PERIOD STARTING JANUARY 1, 2007. THE DATA GO
THROUGH DECEMBER 20, 2007:
SITE RAIN NORM DEFICIT %NORM
CHATTANOOGA 36.39 52.80 -16.41 69
KNOXVILLE 31.62 46.57 -14.95 68
TRI-CITIES 21.08 40.12 -19.04 53
RAIN TOTAL OVER LARGE AREAS SUCH AS RESERVOIR DRAINAGE BASINS IS A MUCH
BETTER INDICATOR OF AN AREA`S "RAIN HEALTH" THAN SIMPLE POINT TOTALS.
BELOW ARE THE DATA FOR THE TVA BASINS IN THE UPPER TENNESSEE RIVER
DRAINAGE FOR THE PERIOD STARTING JANUARY 1, 2007. THE DATA GO THROUGH
DECEMBER 20, 2007:
BASIN RAIN NORM DEFICIT %NORM
SOUTH HOLSTON 30.75 42.18 -11.43 73
WATAUGA 32.03 44.75 -12.72 72
BOONE 27.46 43.33 -15.87 63
CHEROKEE 28.08 42.21 -14.13 67
DOUGLAS 30.31 45.05 -14.74 67
FONTANA 37.41 57.16 -19.75 65
NORRIS 29.64 43.81 -14.17 68
MELTON HILL 31.45 47.62 -16.17 66
CHATUGE 31.35 56.52 -25.17 55
NOTTELY 36.31 52.36 -16.05 69
HIWASSEE 33.78 54.60 -20.82 62
FT. LOUDOUN/TELLICO 27.38 46.58 -19.20 59
WATTS BAR 34.01 49.35 -15.34 69
CHICKAMAUGA 27.36 50.92 -23.56 54
NICKAJACK 27.04 51.21 -24.17 53
GUNTERSVILLE 26.83 51.74 -24.91 52
RAINFALL DEFICITS REMAIN SUBSTANTIAL TO CRITICAL. WHILE THE RECENT RAINS HAVE
BEEN A HUGE HELP, UNFORTUNATELY THEY ARE NOT DROUGHT BUSTERS. DROUGHTS ARE
NOT TYPICALLY "BUSTED" BUT RATHER GO AWAY QUIETLY OVER A LONG PERIOD.
SOIL MOISTURE...
RECENT RAINS HAVE NOT BEEN SUFFICIENT TO MOISTEN TOP SOILS VERY MUCH. VARIOUS
SOIL MOISTURE MODELS SHOW DIFFERENT LOOKS THAT SOIL, BUT ALL SHOW THE TOP 40 CM
OR ROOT DEPTH TO BE VERY DRY IN THE REGION. MOST AREAS ARE IN THE 2ND TO 5TH
PERCENTILE, WHICH MEANS THAT, FOR THE DATE, THEY ARE DRIER THAN 95-98% OF THE
TIME. THE EXCEPTION IS ON THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, WHERE TOP SOILS ARE
IN THE 5-15TH PERCENTILE, OR A LITTLE BETTER THAN OTHER AREAS. THE IMPLICATION
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR IS NOT BAD, HOWEVER, IF THESE VALUES DO NOT IMPROVE BY
SPRING PLANTING TIME, SEED GERMINATION MAY BE DIFFICULT.
THE DEEPER LAYER DOWN TO ABOUT 200 CM IS STILL DRY AND MUCH BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE SEASON. THE ENTIRE REGION IS IN THE 2ND TO 5TH PERCENTILE FOR THE DATE.
THIS IMPLIES THAT THE DEEP WATER TABLE IS STILL SUFFERING. LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAINS HAVE NOT PENETRATED THIS DEEP. THIS IS ALSO APPARENT IN THE NUMBER OF
WELLS AND SPRINGS THAT ARE BELOW NORMAL LEVELS OR EVEN DRY. ANOTHER ASPECT OF
THIS IS THE LOWERED STREAM FLOWS.
CURRENT STREAM FLOWS...
STREAMS FLOWS ARE MUCH BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD LOWS FOR THE DATE. SINCE
THIS IS THE BEGINNING OF THE NORMAL FLOOD SEASON, ONE WOULD EXPECT FLOWS TO BE
MUCH GREATER. THE WORST AREAS ARE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND IN SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE.
AN AREA ON THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND PLATEAU IS IN A NEAR NORMAL CATEGORY, BUT
HAS A TENUOUS HOLD ON NORMALCY.
FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR ANYWHERE IN THE REGION AT THIS TIME.
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN URBANIZED AREAS WITH LOTS OF CONCRETE AND
ASPHALT. IN DROUGHTS, EVEN LARGE RIVER FLOODING CAN OCCUR IF ENOUGH RAIN
FALLS IN A LONGER TIME PERIOD, BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN IN THE NEAR
FUTURE.
EXPECTED RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES...
FOR THE NEXT WEEK (AND THESE COME WITH THE USUAL DISCLAIMERS ABOUT
ACCURACY), TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL, WITH PRECIPITATION
ABOVE NORMAL, AS WELL, WHICH WILL BE WELCOME. FOR THE WEEK AFTER THAT,
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY WARMER THAN NORMAL, BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL OFF TO NEAR NORMAL TO JUST BELOW NORMAL. FOR THE PERIOD OF JANUARY TO APRI
L,
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL, WITH ROUGHLY
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
OUTLOOKS...
PERSISTENCE OF DROUGHT IS USUALLY THE BEST BET WHEN PREDICTING DROUGHT
BEHAVIOR. THE TROPICAL SEASON IS OVER. WE WILL HAVE TO DEPEND ON LARGE
PRECIPITATION SYSTEMS TO BRING US RAINFALL. NORMALLY, THIS IS FLOOD SEASON
APPROACHING IN DECEMBER THROUGH APRIL. STILL, THE DEEP WATER TABLE HAS NOT
RECOVERED AND SO WE REALLY NEED A VERY WET WINTER AND SPRING, ETC, TO GET US
OUT OF THE LONG TERM DROUGHT. THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN AT THIS POINT.
SEVERE DROUGHTS TAKE A LONG TIME TO DEVELOP, AND JUST AS LONG WITH ABOVE
NORMAL RAINS TO EXIT. THIS ONE HAS TAKEN YEARS TO RAMP UP AND WHILE SOME
IMPROVEMENT HAS BEEN MADE, WE ARE STILL IN A NEAR RECORD DROUGHT.
A PLEA...
DEPICTIONS OF DROUGHT ARE OBJECTIVE TO A POINT. MUCH SUBJECTIVITY
GOES INTO THE MIX. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN,
TENNESSEE WELCOMES ANY REPORTS OF IMPACTS TO YOUR LIVELIHOOD OR
LIFESTYLE. PLEASE USE THE PHONE NUMBERS AND EMAIL ADDRESS BELOW.
CALL TO ACTION...
USE LESS WATER! BLOWING OR SWEEPING OFF DRIVEWAYS WILL SAVE WATER. TURNING
OFF THE WATER WHEN BRUSHING TEETH AND SHAVING...AND TAKING SHORT SHOWERS
(NOT BATHS) WILL ALSO SAVE WATER. EVERY LITTLE BIT, TOTALED UP AMONG ALL OF US,
WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE. MOST PEOPLE CAN FIND OTHER EFFECTIVE WAYS TO SAVE
WATER AND STILL HAVE A COMFORTABLE LIFESTYLE. OBEY ALL LAWS REGARDING FIRES AND
BURNING.
FOR MORE INFORMATION OR FOR MEDIA INTERVIEWS CONTACT:
BRIAN BOYD
SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
5974 COMMERCE BLVD.
MORRISTOWN, TN 37814
COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE:
EMAIL: BRIAN.BOYD@NOAA.GOV
WEBSITE: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX
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