NOUS44 KMRX 071701
PNSMRX
423-586-1964 (MEDIA ONLY - FOR IMMEDIATE RESPONSE)
423-586-2296 (ALL OTHER CALLS - MAY GET VOICE MAIL)
DROUGHT STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
1210 PM EDT FRI MAR 7 2008
NOTE! NEW DROUGHT INFORMATION FOR THIS REGION IS LOCATED ONLINE AT
AND THE CLICKING ON THE "DROUGHT" LINK AT THE BOTTOM.
...DROUGHT STATEMENT FOR EAST TENNESSEE, EXTREME SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND
CHEROKEE AND CLAY COUNTIES OF EXTREME WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. NOTE:
THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO ISSUED UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MEMESFMRX OR WMO
HEADER FGUS74 KMRX...
(FOR GRAPHIC DISPLAYS ON THE INTERNET GO TO
WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML)
INTRODUCTION...(CAUTION! ALL GEOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTIONS ARE APPROXIMATE)
NOTE: CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED GENERALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF FEBRUARY
AND THE FIRST WEEK OF MARCH. SEE SPECIFICS BELOW FOR QUALIFICATIONS.
D4 (EXCEPTIONAL) DROUGHT CONDITIONS PERSIST IN TENNESSEE IN THE SOUTHERN
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU COUNTIES OF MARION, SEQUATCHIE, AND BLEDSOE; IN HAMILTON
COUNTY (INCLUDING THE CHATTANOOGA METRO AREA), A SMALL PORTION OF RHEA COUNTY,
AND THE PARTS OF BRADLEY AND POLK COUNTIES ALONG THE GEORGIA LINE.
D3 (EXTREME) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN THE NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES OF
CHEROKEE AND CLAY; AND IN TENNESSEE GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM ROCKWOOD TO
SWEETWATER TO MARYVILLE TO SEVIERVILLE TO BYBEE TO KINGSPORT TO BRISTOL,
TENNESSEE TO THE NC-VA-TN BORDER AREA. THIS INCLUDES THE TRI-CITIES METRO AREA
IN TENNESSEE.
D2 (SEVERE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN TENNESSEE GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM RUGBY TO NORRIS DAM TO SNEEDVILLE, AND THEN IN VIRGINIA TO BIG STONE GAP
TO WISE TO LEBANON TO AROUND MOUNT ROGERS. THIS INCLUDES THE TRI-CITIES METRO
AREA IN VIRGINIA.
D1 (MODERATE) DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST IN TENNESSEE ON THE NORTHERN CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU ALONG THE KENTUCKY BORDER, AND IN VIRGINIA ALONG THE KENTUCKY LINE IN
LEE AND WISE COUNTIES, AND IN THE NORTHEAST HALF OF RUSSELL COUNTY.
FIRE SITUATION...
RECENT RAIN AND SNOWFALL HAS EASED THE FIRE DANGER. IN SOME AREAS, BURN BANS
MAY REMAIN IN EFFECT. CONTACT LOCAL AND STATE OFFICIALS IN YOUR AREA FOR MORE
INFORMATION.
PRECIPITATION STATUS...
RAINFALL AT INDIVIDUAL POINTS IS NOT ALWAYS AN ACCURATE REFLECTION OF AN
AREA'S PRECIPITATION. RAINFALL OVER LARGE AREAS IS A MORE REALISTIC
REPRESENTATION. BELOW ARE THE DATA FOR THE MAIN NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OBSERVATION POINTS FOR THE PERIOD STARTING JANUARY 1, 2007. THE DATA GO
THROUGH THURSDAY, MARCH 6, 2008:
SITE RAIN NORM DEFICIT %NORM
CHATTANOOGA 48.49 65.96 -17.47 74
KNOXVILLE 42.72 57.80 -15.08 74
TRI-CITIES 30.83 49.03 -18.20 63
NWS MORRISTOWN 37.95 53.32 -15.37 71
RAIN TOTAL OVER LARGE AREAS SUCH AS RESERVOIR DRAINAGE BASINS IS A MUCH BETTER
INDICATOR OF AN AREA'S "RAIN HEALTH" THAN SIMPLE POINT TOTALS. BELOW ARE THE
DATA FOR THE TVA BASINS IN THE UPPER TENNESSEE RIVER DRAINAGE FOR THE PERIOD
STARTING JANUARY 1, 2007. THE DATA GO THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY, MARCH 6, 2008:
BASIN RAIN NORM DEFICIT %NORM
SOUTH HOLSTON 39.05 51.68 -12.63 76
WATAUGA 40.14 54.49 -14.35 74
BOONE 36.20 53.24 -17.04 68
CHEROKEE 36.87 51.91 -15.04 71
DOUGLAS 40.05 55.31 -15.26 72
FONTANA 51.87 71.92 -20.05 72
NORRIS 38.96 54.51 -15.55 71
MELTON HILL 43.79 58.99 -15.20 74
CHATUGE 43.29 70.73 -27.44 61
NOTTELY 49.72 65.59 -15.87 76
HIWASSEE 45.85 68.64 -22.79 67
FT. LOUDOUN/TELLICO 38.28 58.17 -19.89 66
WATTS BAR 44.22 61.37 -17.15 72
CHICKAMAUGA 37.57 64.34 -26.77 58
NICKAJACK 36.54 64.71 -28.17 56
GUNTERSVILLE 34.91 65.80 -30.89 53
RAINFALL DEFICITS REMAIN SUBSTANTIAL TO CRITICAL AND ARE GENERALLY GROWING,
AGAIN, IN MOST AREAS. WHILE RECENT RAINFALL EVENTS THE PAST TWO WEEKS HAVE
BEEN VERY HELPFUL AND WELCOME, UNFORTUNATELY THEY ARE NOT DROUGHT BUSTERS.
DROUGHTS ARE NOT TYPICALLY "BUSTED" BUT RATHER GO AWAY QUIETLY OVER A LONG
PERIOD.
SOIL MOISTURE...
TOP SOIL MOISTURE (DOWN TO ABOUT 16 INCHES OR 40 CENTIMETERS) HAS INCREASED
DRAMATICALLY IN SOME AREAS, ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, THE NORTHERN
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU, AND THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA LINE. HOWEVER,
STILL REMAIN AT LEVELS WELL BELOW NORMAL, WITH VALUES IN THESE AREAS IN THE
DRIEST 10-30% RANGE FOR THE DATE. THIS IS AN IMPROVEMENT OVER THE 5-10TH
PERCENTILES FROM EARLIER IN THE WINTER. THE DRIEST AREAS ARE STILL IN SOUTHEAST
TENNESSEE INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU WITH PERCENTILES IN THE 1-5 RANGE.
THIS WILL BE HORRENDOUS FOR SPRING PLANTING AND GERMINATION IF THEY DO NOT
IMPROVE.
IN THE WATER TABLE LAYER DOWN TO ABOUT 6 FEET OR 200 CENTIMETERS, THE SITUATION
IS ABOUT THE SAME WITH THE BEST AREAS IN THE CENTRAL TENNESSEE VALLEY UP INTO
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, AND THE WORST AREA BEING THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TENNESSEE. VALUES IN THESE AREAS ARE ROUGHLY IN THE 5-15TH PERCENTILE
AND 1-5TH, RESPECTIVELY. THIS LAYER IS THE ONE THAT BEGINS TO AFFECT SPRINGS
AND WELLS AND THERE ARE STILL SPORADIC REPORTS OF WELLS NOT BEING UP TO NORMAL
OR SPRINGS DRIED UP.
CURRENT STREAM FLOWS...
STREAMFLOWS ACROSS THE REGION ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THE DATE, DUE TO RECENT HEAVY
RAINS AND A LARGE SNOWPACK IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THAT HAS MELTED. IN A NORMAL
YEAR, THIS LARGE SNOWPACK WITH HEAVY RAINS ON TOP OF IT WOULD HAVE CAUSED
WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING. THE FACT THAT NONE OCCURRED SHOWS HOW DRY THE WATER
TABLE AND TOP SOIL ARE. STREAMS HAVE BEEN RESPONDING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO HEAVY
RAINS, BUT THEN SUBSIDING QUICKLY, AS WELL.
FLOODING...
WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT LIKELY TO OCCUR ANYWHERE IN THE REGION AT THIS TIME.
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR IN URBANIZED AREAS WITH LOTS OF CONCRETE AND
ASPHALT. IN DROUGHTS, EVEN LARGE RIVER FLOODING CAN OCCUR IF ENOUGH RAIN FALLS
IN A LONGER TIME PERIOD, BUT THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN IN THE NEAR FUTURE.
THE OUTLOOK FOR SPRING IS FOR BELOW AVERAGE CHANCES OF RIVER FLOODING.
EXPECTED RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES...
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF APRIL, BOTH TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. ABOVE NORMAL RAINFALL WILL HELP THE SOIL MOISTURE,
BUT COULD BE COUNTERED BY ABOVE NORMAL EVAPORATION DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES.
THE STRENGTH AND DURATION OF WINDS WILL BECOME AN IMPORTANT FACTOR. NORMALLY,
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS THE LEAST WINDIEST, ON AVERAGE, REGION OF THE COUNTRY.
THROUGH MID JUNE, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE WARMER AND SLIGHTLY DRIER THAN NORMAL,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AREA NEAR THE GEORGIA STATE LINE.
OUTLOOK...
PERSISTENCE OF DROUGHT IS USUALLY THE BEST BET WHEN PREDICTING DROUGHT BEHAVIOR
.
THIS RECORD DROUGHT HAS TAKEN YEARS TO DEVELOP AND WILL TAKE YEARS TO WIPE OUT.
CONDITIONS WOULD IMPROVE WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY OR SUSTAINED RAINFALL, BUT THE
SITUATION WILL REMAIN PRECARIOUS UNTIL MONTHS OF SUSTAINED ABOVE NORMAL RAIN
HAS BEEN COMPLETED. SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXISTED A COUPLE OF YEARS AGO IN THE
GREAT PLAINS AND ONE TROPICAL STORM ALL BUT WIPED OUT THE DROUGHT. BUT A FEW
MONTHS LATER IT RETURNED WHEN LONG PERIODS WITH NO RAIN OCCURRED. CONSERVATIVE
CHANGES TO THE DROUGHT PICTURE ARE NEARLY ALWAYS BEST.
A PLEA...
DEPICTIONS OF DROUGHT ARE OBJECTIVE TO A POINT. MUCH SUBJECTIVITY GOES INTO
THE MIX. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN, TENNESSEE WELCOMES ANY
REPORTS OF IMPACTS TO YOUR LIVELIHOOD OR LIFESTYLE. PLEASE USE THE PHONE
NUMBERS AND EMAIL ADDRESS BELOW.
CALL TO ACTION...
USE LESS WATER! BLOWING OR SWEEPING OFF DRIVEWAYS WILL SAVE WATER. TURNING OFF
THE WATER WHEN BRUSHING TEETH AND SHAVING, AND TAKING SHORT SHOWERS (NOT BATHS)
WILL ALSO SAVE WATER. EVERY LITTLE BIT, TOTALED UP AMONG ALL OF US, WILL MAKE
A BIG DIFFERENCE. MOST PEOPLE CAN FIND OTHER EFFECTIVE WAYS TO SAVE WATER AND
STILL HAVE A COMFORTABLE LIFESTYLE. OBEY ALL LAWS REGARDING FIRES AND BURNING.
FOR MORE INFORMATION OR FOR MEDIA INTERVIEWS CONTACT:
BRIAN BOYD
SENIOR SERVICE HYDROLOGIST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
5974 COMMERCE BLVD.
MORRISTOWN, TN 37814
COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE:
EMAIL: BRIAN.BOYD@NOAA.GOV
WEBSITE: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX
***************
Copyright 2008 DataSwitch Information Services. All rights reserved.
This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or
redistributed. Any unauthorized redistribution of this message
without the express written and signed consent of a DataSwitch
officer constitutes a copyright violation and should be reported to
admin@dataswitch.com -- DataSwitch Information Services, Inc.
You have received this bulletin as part of your paid subscription
to a DataSwitch service. To unsubscribe, send request with your
account name to admin@dataswitch.com; or call 269-983-6271.
***************
