PNSJKL
606-666-2560
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
210 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2007
...A LARGE PORTION OF EAST KENTUCKY WILL EXPERIENCE ITS FIRST
MONTH WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION SINCE A YEAR AGO...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE PAST WEEK WAS DOMINATED BY AN UNUSUAL CUTOFF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WANDERING OVER THE GULF STATES AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS
POTENT LOW WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR PROVIDING RELIEF TO THE AREA FROM
DROUGHT CONDITIONS... ALTHOUGH THE AREA STILL HAS A LONG WAY TO GO
TO COMPLETELY RECOVER. FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT... AREAS
IN THE BLUEGRASS REGION RECEIVED ALMOST 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL...
WHILE THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE RECEIVED ALMOST 3 INCHES. AREAS
FURTHER SOUTH ONLY RECEIVED AROUND 2 INCHES... DESPITE NEEDING THE
RAINFALL THE MOST. TEMPERATURES WERE WELL ABOVE NORMAL AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK... THEN FELL TO AROUND NORMAL BY MID WEEK AS
CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL HELPED COOL THINGS OFF. THE LATEST EDITION
OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR FROM TUESDAY OCTOBER 23RD CONTINUES TO
INDICATE EXCEPTIONAL /D4/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS ROUGHLY SOUTH OF AN
ELKHORN CITY-PRESTONSBURG-JACKSON-LONDON-WHITLEY CITY LINE... WHILE
EXTREME /D3/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS CHARACTERIZE THE REMAINDER OF EAST
KENTUCKY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE LATEST DROUGHT
MONITOR DOES NOT INCLUDE THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THE AREA HAS
RECEIVED SINCE TUESDAY.
NOTE: AN EXCEPTIONAL /D4/ DROUGHT IS CONSIDERED A ONCE IN 50 YEAR
DROUGHT CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL AND WIDESPREAD CROP AND PASTURE
LOSSES AND SHORTAGES OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS... STREAMS AND WELLS
CREATING WATER EMERGENCIES.
.LOCAL AREA AFFECTED...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR NOW PLACES ALL OF BELL... BREATHITT...
CLAY... HARLAN... KNOTT... KNOX... LESLIE... LETCHER... OWSLEY...
PERRY... AND WHITLEY COUNTIES IN AN EXCEPTIONAL /D4/ DROUGHT.
EXTREME /D3/ TO EXCEPTIONAL /D4/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS SPLIT THE
COUNTIES OF... FLOYD... PIKE... MAGOFFIN... LEE... JACKSON...
LAUREL... PULASKI... AND MCCREARY.
EXTREME /D3/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO BE FELT OVER ALL OF
BATH... ELLIOTT... ESTILL... FLEMING... JOHNSON... MARTIN...
MENIFEE... MONTGOMERY... MORGAN... POWELL... ROCKCASTLE... ROWAN...
WAYNE... AND WOLFE COUNTIES.
.STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS...
THE STATE OF KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A WATER SHORTAGE WARNING FOR
MAGOFFIN COUNTY DUE TO LOW FLOWS OF THE LICKING RIVER. ALSO...
HARLAN... LETCHER... AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PIKE COUNTIES HAVE
BEEN PLACED UNDER A WARNING DUE TO LOW LEVELS OF THE ELKHORN CREEK
WATERSHED.
THE STATE HAS ALSO ISSUED A WATER SHORTAGE WATCH FOR SEVERAL
COUNTIES INCLUDING: BATH... BELL... BREATHITT... CLAY... ESTILL...
FLOYD... JACKSON... KNOX... KNOTT... LAUREL... LEE... LESLIE...
MAGOFFIN... MCCREARY... MENIFEE... MONTGOMERY... OWSLEY... PERRY...
PIKE... POWELL... PULASKI... ROCKCASTLE... WAYNE... WHITLEY AND
WOLFE. CITIZENS IN THE WATER SHORTAGE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED
TO REDUCE NONESSENTIAL USES OF WATER IF ASKED TO DO SO BY THEIR
WATER PROVIDERS.
SEVERAL LOCAL UTILITIES HAVE ISSUED ADVISORIES FOR THEIR USERS TO
DISCONTINUE ALL UNNECESSARY WATER USE AND TO CONSERVE WATER. PLEASE
VISIT THE KENTUCKY DIVISION OF WATER DROUGHT INFORMATION PAGE AT
WWW.WATER.KY.GOV/WATERUSE/DROUGHT... OR CHECK WITH YOUR LOCAL
OFFICIALS... FOR UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION.
ALL OF KENTUCKY HAS BEEN GIVEN A FEDERAL DISASTER DECLARATION DUE TO
THE EXTENDED DROUGHT. THE DECLARATION MAKES FARMERS ELIGIBLE FOR LOW
INTEREST EMERGENCY LOANS.
RECENT RAINS HAVE DECREASED THE WILDFIRE DANGER ACROSS THE
COMMONWEALTH. AS A RESULT... THE GOVERNOR LIFTED THE EMERGENCY BAN
ON OUTDOOR BURNING. HOWEVER... SOME COUNTIES HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP
THEIR BURNING BAN IN PLACE. FOR MORE INFORMATION SEE THE FIRE DANGER
AND IMPACTS SECTION BELOW.
.CLIMATE SUMMARY...
FOR THE THIRD MONTH IN A ROW... THE LONDON CORBIN AIRPORT BROKE A
MONTHLY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORD WHEN THE MERCURY CLIMBED TO 92
DEGREES ON THE 7TH. THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE ALSO BROKE THE HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORD FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER WHEN THE MERCURY HIT 89
DEGREES ON THE 8TH. ALSO... RECORD MAXIMUM LOW TEMPERATURES WERE SET
AT BOTH LONDON AND JACKSON ON OCTOBER 16TH AND 18TH. ON OCTOBER 21ST
THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE RECORDED A RECORD HIGH OF 83 DEGREES
WHICH SHATTERED THE OLD RECORD OF 78. THE JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE
ALSO TIED THE DAILY RAINFALL RECORD OF .4 INCHES ON OCTOBER 24TH.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE IMPROVED AFTER THIS WEEKS PRECIPITATION AND
MOST AREAS ARE ACTUALLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS MONTH. AT THE JACKSON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE... 3.80 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN
SO FAR THIS MONTH. THIS IS 1.29 INCHES ABOVE THE NORMAL AMOUNT.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS HAVE OCCURRED AT THE LONDON CORBIN AIRPORT WHERE
3.41 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN THIS MONTH. THIS IS 1.2 INCHES ABOVE
NORMAL.
SINCE JACKSON WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MONTH OF
OCTOBER... THIS WILL BE THE FIRST MONTH IN EXACTLY A YEAR THAT A
PRECIPITATION DEFICIT HAS NOT BEEN REPORTED. A SUMMARY OF
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM NOVEMBER 1ST 2006 THROUGH 7 AM FRIDAY
OCTOBER 19TH... INCLUDING DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL... ARE LISTED BELOW
DETAILING THE LONG TERM DEFICITS AT SEVERAL SITES ACROSS EAST
KENTUCKY...
STATION COUNTY PCPN SINCE NOV 1 NORMAL DEPARTURE
CAVE RUN DAM ROWAN 37.55 46.79 -9.24
WEST LIBERTY 3NW MORGAN 33.31 44.38 -11.07
SLADE 5NE POWELL 36.72 48.09 -11.37
FISHTRAP LAKE PIKE 28.13 45.32 -17.19
SKYLINE 1SE LETCHER 33.01 46.14 -13.13
BUCKHORN DAM PERRY 30.52 46.49 -15.97
CARR FORK KNOTT 26.06 45.79 -19.73
LONDON ASOS LAUREL 28.92 46.04 -17.12
WFO JACKSON BREATHITT 31.36 48.82 -17.46
MOUNT VERNON ROCKCASTLE 33.34 51.86 -18.52
MONTICELLO 3NE WAYNE 30.35 50.46 -20.11
SOMERSET 2N PULASKI 30.32 50.23 -19.91
.SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
AS OF THURSDAY OCTOBER 25TH... THE MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER
INDICATES CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE NOW HAS A SURPLUS OF A QUARTER TO A
HALF AN INCH IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. HOWEVER... EXPANDING THAT TO
INCLUDE THE TOP 72 INCHES OF SOIL STILL REVEALS A DEFICIT OF OVER
2.5 INCHES IN EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY AND AROUND AN INCH
DEFICIT OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
LOOKING AT THE STATE AS A WHOLE... TOPSOIL CONDITIONS ARE NOW RATED
81 PERCENT SHORT OR VERY SHORT AND SUBSOIL CONDITIONS ARE RATED AS
93 PERCENT SHORT OR VERY SHORT BY REPORTS ISSUED FROM THE USDA
KENTUCKY FIELD OFFICE ON OCTOBER 21ST.
.RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS...
AS OF FRIDAY OCTOBER 26TH... STREAM FLOWS HAVE IMPROVED DRAMATICALLY
OVER MOST OF THE EAST KENTUCKY RIVER BASINS. THE ONLY FLOW THAT
RANKS AS SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD LOW IS FOUND AT
GOOSE CREEK IN MANCHESTER. ELSEWHERE... STREAM FLOWS ARE AT OR ABOVE
NORMAL. CUTSHIN CREEK AT WOOTON IS RANKED AS 95 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL
FLOW.
.RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS...
AS OF OCTOBER 26 2007... LAKE LEVELS ARE 1.1 FEET BELOW NORMAL AT
CAVE RUN LAKE. LAKE LEVELS ARE .6 FEET BELOW NORMAL AT CARR CREEK
LAKE AND BUCKHORN LAKE. DEWEY AND PAINTSVILLE LAKES ARE NEAR NORMAL
FOR THE AVERAGE SUMMER POOL... WHILE FISHTRAP LAKE IS 10.5 FEET
BELOW NORMAL.
.AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
THE LATEST CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY THE USDA KENTUCKY FIELD
OFFICE ON OCTOBER 22ND REPORTS THAT SOME FARMERS WILL NOT HARVEST
THEIR SOYBEANS DUE TO LOW YIELDS. PASTURES WERE RATED AS 80 PERCENT
POOR OR VERY POOR ACROSS THE STATE AND 84 PERCENT OF PRODUCERS
REPORTED THEY WILL NOT HAVE AN ADEQUATE SUPPLY OF HAY FOR THIS
WINTERS FEEDING.
.FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
AS OF OCTOBER 25TH... FIRE DANGER IS CURRENTLY RATED AS LOW IN MOST
AREAS OF EASTER KENTUCKY WITH ONLY A COUPLE OF SMALL AREAS OF
MODERATE DANGER IN EXTREME EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. THE
KEETCH-BYRAM DROUGHT INDEX... WHICH IS A DROUGHT INDEX DESIGNED
SPECIFICALLY FOR FIRE POTENTIAL ASSESSMENT... INDICATES CONDITIONS
THAT ARE OFTEN ASSOCIATED WITH A SEVERE DROUGHT... BUT PREDICTABLE
WILDFIRE BEHAVIOR.
FIRES HAVE OCCURRED OVER HARLAN... KNOX... LETCHER... PERRY...
ROWAN... AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN RECENT DAYS. THE FIRE DANGER LEVEL IN
MOST AREAS OF THE STATE TEMPORARILY DECREASED FOLLOWING MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL. CONDITIONS CAN WORSEN AGAIN IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER. LEAVES ARE BEGINNING TO FALL, CREATING AN ADDITIONAL FUEL
LOAD ON THE FOREST FLOOR. THE STATEWIDE BURNING BAN WAS LIFTED LAST
FRIDAY, BUT SOME COUNTIES HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP THEIR LOCAL BURNING
BANS IN PLACE. CITIZENS SHOULD CONTACT THEIR LOCAL OFFICIALS BEFORE
CONDUCTING ANY OUTDOOR BURNING.
COUNTIES IN EASTERN KENTUCKY THAT STILL HAVE A BURN BAN IN PLACE AS
OF OCTOBER 22ND ARE... BATH... BELL... CLAY... HARLAN... JACKSON...
KNOTT... KNOX... LAUREL... LESLIE... LETCHER... MAGOFFIN...
MARTIN... MCCREARY... PERRY... ROCKCASTLE... ROWAN... AND WHITLEY.
.PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE EXIT OF A CUTOFF LOW
THAT BROUGHT SOME MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL TO EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS PAST
WEEK. THERE WILL BE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF LIGHT RAINFALL AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EXITS THE AREA BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. AS WE MOVE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... EASTERN KENTUCKY
WILL START TO BE SEPARATED FROM THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN TAKE OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION LOW AND TEMPERATURES AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK... PROVIDED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER... FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY OCTOBER 2ND THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NOVEMBER 7TH... INDICATES A WEATHER PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
FOR THE TIME PERIOD OF LATE OCTOBER THROUGH LATE NOVEMBER... THE
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES A WEATHER PATTERN WITH EQUAL
CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.
THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY CALLS FOR
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL AND EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE OR BELOW
PRECIPITATION.
THE SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK THROUGH THE MONTH OF JANUARY INDICATES
A WEATHER PATTERN THAT WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE DROUGHT TO
CONTINUE... BUT IMPROVE SLIGHTLY.
.QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
PLEASE CONTACT...
TONY EDWARDS
DROUGHT FOCAL POINT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
JACKSON KENTUCKY 41339
COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE:
BRIAN.SCHOETTMER@NOAA.GOV (ALL LOWER CASE)
.RELATED WEB SITES...
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES ARE AVAILABLE FOR FURTHER WEATHER AND
DROUGHT INFORMATION (ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN LOWER CASE)...
LOCAL WEATHER...CLIMATE AND WATER INFO...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
USGS - HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
COE - HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL
NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/INDEX.HTML
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
USDA NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE...
MIDWEST CLIMATE WATCH...
HTTP://MRCC.SWS.UIUC.EDU/CLIWATCH/WATCH.HTM
UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY AGRICULTURAL WEATHER CENTER...
HTTP://WWWAGWX.CA.UKY.EDU/DROUGHT.HTML
KENTUCKY DIVISION OF WATER...
KENTUCKY DIVISION OF FORESTRY...
NWS OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/OHRFC/
.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER... THE
USDA... STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA
OBSERVATIONS SITES... COOPERATIVE NETWORK STATIONS...THE USGS...AND
THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS.
.NEXT ISSUANCE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL NEXT BE UPDATED BY FRIDAY NOVEMBER 2ND.
ABE/SCHOETTMER
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