NOUS43 KJKL 091748
PNSJKL
606-666-2560
DROUGHT STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1248 PM EDT FRI NOV 9 2007
...RECENT RAINS BRING IMPROVING DROUGHT CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS BUT
LARGE LONG TERM PRECIPITATION DEFICITS REMAIN...
.SYNOPSIS...
A ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVED THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
MONDAY EVENING BRINGING DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO SOME LOCATIONS.
MOST AREAS RECEIVED AROUND A HALF AN INCH OF RAIN... WHILE OTHER
AREAS WERE LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET OVER AN INCH. PRECIPITATION TOTALS
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS ANOTHER SYSTEM PRODUCES LIGHT RAINFALL
FOR EAST KENTUCKY TODAY. WHILE MANY SHORT TERM DROUGHT INDICATORS
HAVE IMPROVED WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL... OTHER LONG TERM INDICATORS
REMAIN INDICATIVE OF A SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT. IT WILL TAKE A
SEVERAL MONTH PERIOD OF ABNORMALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO TOTALLY ERASE
THE DROUGHT FROM THE REGION.
THE LATEST EDITION OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR... ISSUED ON TUESDAY
NOVEMBER 6TH... SHOWS THE SHORT TERM IMPROVEMENTS BY LEAVING EXTREME
TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT CONDITIONS CONFINED TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY... MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A MONTICELLO TO JACKSON TO PIKEVILLE
LINE. MODERATE /D1/ TO SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER
THE REST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY.
NOTE: AN EXCEPTIONAL /D4/ DROUGHT IS CONSIDERED A ONCE IN 50 YEAR
DROUGHT CHARACTERIZED BY EXCEPTIONAL AND WIDESPREAD CROP AND PASTURE
LOSSES AND SHORTAGES OF WATER IN RESERVOIRS... STREAMS AND WELLS
CREATING WATER EMERGENCIES.
.LOCAL AREA AFFECTED...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR NOW PLACES BELL AND HARLAN COUNTIES IN AN
EXCEPTIONAL /D4/ DROUGHT.
EXTREME /D3/ TO EXCEPTIONAL /D4/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE
OVER WAYNE... MCCREARY... WHITLEY... PULASKI... LAUREL... CLAY...
KNOX... LESLIE... PERRY... OWSLEY... BREATHITT... MAGOFFIN...
FLOYD... KNOTT... LETCHER AND PIKE COUNTIES.
MODERATE /D1/ TO SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE NOW BEING FELT
OVER ROCKCASTLE... JACKSON... ESTILL... LEE... WOLFE... POWELL...
MONTGOMERY... MENIFEE... MORGAN... JOHNSON... MARTIN... ELLIOTT...
ROWAN... BATH... AND FLEMING COUNTIES.
.STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS...
AS OF OCTOBER 19TH... THE STATE OF KENTUCKY HAS ISSUED A WATER
SHORTAGE WARNING FOR MAGOFFIN COUNTY DUE TO LOW FLOWS ON THE LICKING
RIVER. ALSO... HARLAN... LETCHER AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF PIKE
COUNTY HAVE BEEN PLACED UNDER A WATER SHORTAGE WARNING DUE TO LOW
FLOWS IN THE ELKHORN CREEK WATERSHED.
THE STATE HAS ALSO ISSUED A WATER SHORTAGE WATCH FOR SEVERAL
COUNTIES INCLUDING: BATH... BELL... BREATHITT... CLAY... ESTILL...
FLOYD... JACKSON... KNOX... KNOTT... LAUREL... LEE... LESLIE...
MAGOFFIN... MCCREARY... MENIFEE... MONTGOMERY... OWSLEY... PERRY...
PIKE... POWELL... PULASKI... ROCKCASTLE... WAYNE... WHITLEY AND
WOLFE. CITIZENS IN THE WATER SHORTAGE WATCH AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED
TO REDUCE NONESSENTIAL USES OF WATER IF ASKED TO DO SO BY THEIR
WATER PROVIDERS.
SEVERAL LOCAL UTILITIES HAVE ISSUED ADVISORIES FOR THEIR USERS TO
DISCONTINUE ALL UNNECESSARY WATER USE AND TO CONSERVE WATER. PLEASE
VISIT THE KENTUCKY DIVISION OF WATER DROUGHT INFORMATION PAGE AT
WWW.WATER.KY.GOV/WATERUSE/DROUGHT... OR CHECK WITH YOUR LOCAL
OFFICIALS... FOR UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION.
.CLIMATE SUMMARY...
NOVEMBER 2007 STARTED OFF WITH A COUPLE OF DECENT RAINFALL EVENTS...
HOWEVER MOST AREAS HAVE ALREADY FALLEN BEHIND IN THE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CATEGORY FOR THE MONTH. AS OF THURSDAY NOVEMBER 8TH...
THE JACKSON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE WAS .70 INCHES BELOW
NORMAL AND THE LONDON CORBIN AIRPORT WAS .68 INCHES BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY HAVE BEEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NOVEMBER AS WELL.
A SUMMARY OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM NOVEMBER 1ST 2006 THROUGH
7AM FRIDAY NOVEMBER 9TH 2007... INCLUDING DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL...
ARE LISTED BELOW DETAILING THE LONG TERM DEFICITS AT SEVERAL SITES
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY...
STATION COUNTY PCPN SINCE NOV 1 NORMAL DEPARTURE
CAVE RUN DAM ROWAN 38.79 48.32 -9.53
WEST LIBERTY 3NW MORGAN 34.06 45.74 -11.68
SLADE 5NE POWELL 37.26 49.73 -12.47
FISHTRAP LAKE PIKE 28.71 46.76 -18.05
SKYLINE 1SE LETCHER 33.44 47.62 -14.18
BUCKHORN DAM PERRY 31.17 47.95 -16.78
CARR FORK KNOTT 26.63 47.28 -20.65
LONDON ASOS LAUREL 29.16 47.58 -18.42
WFO JACKSON BREATHITT 31.72 50.52 -18.80
MOUNT VERNON ROCKCASTLE 34.00 53.57 -19.53
MONTICELLO 3NE WAYNE 30.75 52.07 -21.22
SOMERSET 2N PULASKI 30.61 51.92 -21.31
MIDDLESBORO BELL 29.72 51.20 -21.48
IT IS ESTIMATED THAT AROUND 20 INCHES OF RAIN WILL NEED TO FALL OVER
THE NEXT THREE MONTHS TO COMPLETELY END THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THIS
WOULD EQUATE TO RECEIVING AROUND 8 INCHES MORE THAN NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.
.SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
AS OF THURSDAY NOVEMBER 8TH... THE MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER
INDICATES CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE IN THE TOP 12 INCHES OF SOIL HAS
DECLINED WITH DEFICITS NOW AROUND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. EXPANDING
THAT TO INCLUDE THE TOP 72 INCHES OF SOIL REVEALS DEFICITS RANGING
FROM AN INCH OVER EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY TO NEAR 3 INCHES CLOSE TO
THE VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE BORDER.
.RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS...
AS OF FRIDAY NOVEMBER 9TH... STREAM FLOWS HAVE BEGUN TO DECLINE AS
RUNOFF FROM LAST WEEKS RAIN HAS ENDED. THE LOWEST FLOWS ARE NOW
FOUND ON THE UPSTREAM PORTIONS OF THE CUMBERLAND RIVER... THE SOUTH
FORK OF THE KENTUCKY RIVER... AND THE LITTLE SANDY RIVER AT GRAYSON.
.RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS...
MOST LAKES UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS ARE
NOW IN THE INITIAL STAGES OF DRAWDOWN TO WINTER POOL.
.AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
THE LATEST CROP AND WEATHER REPORT ISSUED BY THE USDA KENTUCKY FIELD
OFFICE ON NOVEMBER 5TH REPORTS THAT RECENT RAINS BROUGHT IMPROVED
PASTURE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE AND REPLENISHED DROUGHT STRICKEN
STOCK PONDS. PASTURES WERE RATED AS 54 PERCENT POOR OR VERY POOR
ACROSS THE STATE. TOBACCO CROPS HAVE CONTINUED TO IMPROVE WITH THE
RECENT RAINFALL AS ONLY 14 PERCENT OF CROPS ARE NOW RATED AS POOR OR
VERY POOR.
.FIRE DANGER IMPACTS...
FIRE DANGER HAS DECREASED DUE TO THE NOVEMBER 5TH RAINFALL.
HOWEVER... THE COOL WEATHER PATTERN OF LATE WHICH INCLUDED SEVERAL
MORNING FROSTS HAS CAUSED AN INCREASE IN LEAF FALL ADDING TO THE
FUEL LOADS ON THE FOREST FLOOR. FIRES HAVE BEEN REPORTED IN RECENT
DAYS IN BELL... BREATHITT... CLAY... ESTILL... FLOYD... HARLAN...
JACKSON... JOHNSON... KNOX... LAUREL... LESLIE... LETCHER...
MAGOFFIN... MARTIN... MENIFEE... MORGAN... OWSLEY... PERRY...
PIKE... ROCKCASTLE... WAYNE... AND WOLFE COUNTIES. OUTDOOR BURN BANS
HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN HARLAN... KNOTT... LETCHER AND WHITLEY COUNTIES
AS OF NOVEMBER 1ST.
.PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A MOIST AND COOL WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO TAKE SHAPE STARTING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL START TO INCREASE ON VETERANS
DAY WITH THE BEST SHOT AT RAIN COMING LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL MAINLY STAY BELOW THE NORMAL VALUE OF AROUND 60
DEGREES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE THE
EXCEPTION AS HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TOP OUT ABOVE 60 DEGREES
BEFORE RAINFALL COMES TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK... PROVIDED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER... FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY NOVEMBER 16TH THROUGH THURSDAY
NOVEMBER 22ND... INDICATES A WEATHER PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR A
CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NORMAL PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS.
THE OUTLOOK FOR THE WINTER MONTHS... ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE
PREDICTION CENTER... INDICATES A WEATHER PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
.QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
PLEASE CONTACT...
TONY EDWARDS
BRIAN SCHOETTMER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
JACKSON KENTUCKY 41339
COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE:
TONY.EDWARDS@NOAA.GOV
BRIAN.SCHOETTMER@NOAA.GOV
.RELATED WEB SITES...
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES ARE AVAILABLE FOR FURTHER WEATHER AND
DROUGHT INFORMATION (ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN LOWER CASE)...
LOCAL WEATHER...CLIMATE AND WATER INFO...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
USGS - HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
COE - HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL
NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/INDEX.HTML
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
USDA NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE...
MIDWEST CLIMATE WATCH...
HTTP://MRCC.SWS.UIUC.EDU/CLIWATCH/WATCH.HTM
UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY AGRICULTURAL WEATHER CENTER...
HTTP://WWWAGWX.CA.UKY.EDU/DROUGHT.HTML
KENTUCKY DIVISION OF WATER...
KENTUCKY DIVISION OF FORESTRY...
NWS OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/OHRFC/
.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER... THE
USDA... STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA
OBSERVATIONS SITES... COOPERATIVE NETWORK STATIONS...THE USGS...AND
THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS.
.NEXT ISSUANCE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL NEXT BE UPDATED BY FRIDAY NOVEMBER 16TH.
ABE/SCHOETTMER
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