NOUS43 KJKL 202108
PNSJKL
606-666-2560
DROUGHT STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
408 PM EST FRI DEC 14 2007
...DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN EXTREME ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER AND
LONG TERM DEFICITS STILL REMAIN...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE RAINS CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE BLUEGRASS STATE BRINGING
ADDITIONAL IMPROVEMENTS IN THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. THE LATEST
EDITION OF THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR... ISSUED ON THURSDAY DECEMBER
20TH... SHOWS FLEMING... BATH... AND MONTGOMERY COUNTIES NOW OUT OF
DROUGHT CONDITIONS. EXTREME /D3/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE
IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING VIRGINIA WITH SEVERE /D2/ OR MODERATE /D1/
DROUGHT OVER THE REMAINDER OF EAST KENTUCKY. A UNIQUE SITUATION NOW
EXISTS AS AREAS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY ARE BACK TO OR NEAR
NORMAL DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL... AND AREAS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS PARKWAY ARE IN SEVERE TO EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
.LOCAL AREA AFFECTED...
ACCORDING TO THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR... EXTREME /D3/ DROUGHT
CONDITIONS NOW EXIST OVER BELL... HARLAN... LETCHER... AND SOUTHERN
PIKE COUNTIES.
SEVERE /D2/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER MCCREARY... WHITLEY...
KNOX... SOUTHERN CLAY... LESLIE... PERRY... KNOTT... FLOYD... AND
NORTHERN PIKE COUNTIES.
MODERATE /D1/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER THE COUNTIES OF WAYNE...
LAUREL... NORTHERN CLAY... BREATHITT... MAGOFFIN... JOHNSON... AND
MARTIN.
ABNORMALLY DRY /D0/ DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIST OVER PULASKI...
ROCKCASTLE... JACKSON... LEE... ESTILL... POWELL... WOLFE...
MORGAN...MENIFEE...AND ELLIOTT COUNTIES.
.STATE AND LOCAL ACTIONS...
AS OF DECEMBER 17TH... THE STATE OF KENTUCKY HAS CANCELLED THE WATER
SHORTAGE WATCH FOR ALL BUT TWO COUNTIES. THE TWO COUNTIES... HARLAN
AND LETCHER... WERE DOWNGRADED FROM WATER SHORTAGE WARNINGS.
LOCAL UTILITIES HAVE ISSUED ADVISORIES FOR THEIR USERS TO
DISCONTINUE ALL UNNECESSARY WATER USE AND TO CONSERVE WATER. PLEASE
VISIT THE KENTUCKY DIVISION OF WATER DROUGHT INFORMATION PAGE AT
WWW.WATER.KY.GOV/WATERUSE/DROUGHT... OR CHECK WITH YOUR LOCAL
OFFICIALS... FOR UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION.
.CLIMATE SUMMARY...
DECEMBER HAS BEEN A PRETTY ACTIVE MONTH SO FAR... AS MUCH NEEDED
RAINFALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE SET RECORDS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. NUMEROUS RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES WERE SET AT BOTH THE
JACKSON WEATHER OFFICE AND THE LONDON CORBIN AIRPORT ON DECEMBER 9TH
THROUGH THE 13TH. MOST OF THE PREVIOUS RECORDS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S WERE REPLACED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. ALSO... A
PRECIPITATION RECORD WAS SET AT LONDON AS .34 INCHES OF RAINFALL ON
THE THE 12TH REPLACED THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF .32 INCHES SET BACK IN
1998. A RECORD SNOWFALL WAS ALSO SET AT LONDON ON THE 16TH AS .3
INCHES OF SNOW FELL. ON AVERAGE... THE MONTH OF DECEMBER HAS
SEEN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THIS CONTINUES TO
TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT BETWEEN NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE NORTH AND
EXTREME DROUGHT CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH.
WHILE THE SHORT TERM DROUGHT INDICES HAVE IMPROVED... LONG TERM
INDICES ARE MUCH MORE PESSIMISTIC. THIS IS DUE TO THE ACCUMULATING
RAINFALL DEFICITS WHICH BEGAN AROUND NOVEMBER 1ST OF LAST YEAR AND
CONTINUED UNTIL JUST RECENTLY. DURING THIS PERIOD PRECIPITATION
DEFICITS OF UP TO 21 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT SOME STATIONS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. A SUMMARY OF PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FROM
NOVEMBER 1ST 2006 THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY DECEMBER 20TH 2007...
INCLUDING DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL... ARE LISTED BELOW DETAILING THE
LONG TERM DEFICITS AT SEVERAL SITES ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. NOTE THE
MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES... VERSUS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES.
PCPN SINCE
STATION COUNTY NOV 1 2006 NORMAL DEPARTURE
CAVE RUN DAM ROWAN 45.95 53.42 -7.47
WEST LIBERTY 3NW MORGAN 41.97 50.75 -8.78
SLADE 5NE POWELL 45.70 55.58 -9.88
FISHTRAP LAKE PIKE 32.53 51.61 -19.08
SKYLINE 1SE LETCHER 36.24 52.58 -16.34
BUCKHORN DAM PERRY 38.68 53.25 -14.57
CARR FORK KNOTT 30.86 52.28 -21.42
LONDON ASOS LAUREL 36.10 53.24 -17.14
WFO JACKSON BREATHITT 38.23 56.44 -18.21
MOUNT VERNON ROCKCASTLE 43.17 59.82 -16.65
MONTICELLO 3NE WAYNE 37.02 58.28 -21.26
SOMERSET 2N PULASKI 39.68 57.98 -18.30
IT IS ESTIMATED THAT BETWEEN 16 AND 19 INCHES OF RAIN WILL NEED TO
FALL OVER THE NEXT THREE MONTHS TO COMPLETELY END THE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. THIS WOULD EQUATE TO RECEIVING AROUND 4 INCHES MORE THAN
NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
.SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS...
AS OF THURSDAY DECEMBER 20TH... THE MIDWEST REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER
INDICATES CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE IN THE TOP 12 INCHES OF SOIL IS
AROUND NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. A MOISTURE SURPLUS OF AN 1
INCH TO 1.5 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL IS FOUND IN THE TOP 72 INCHES OF
SOIL.
.RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS...
AS OF THURSDAY DECEMBER 20TH... THE GRADIENT BETWEEN DROUGHT AND NON
DROUGHT CONDITIONS IS EVIDENT AS ABOUT HALF OF THE STATIONS IN THE
SOUTHERN BIG SANDY AND CUMBERLAND BASINS ARE REPORTING SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL FLOW. STREAMFLOWS ARE NORMAL IN THE NORTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE BIG SANDY AND KENTUCKY DRAINAGE BASINS.
.RESERVOIR AND LAKE LEVELS...
MOST LAKES UNDER THE CONTROL OF THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS ARE
NOW IN DRAWDOWN TO WINTER POOL LEVELS.
.AGRICULTURAL IMPACTS...
THE IMMEDIACY OF THE DROUGHT FOR AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS HAS BEEN
LESSENED BY THE RECENT RAINS AND TIME OF YEAR. THE MAIN IMPACT OF
THE RECENT DROUGHT OVER THE WINTER MONTHS... REGARDLESS OF HOW MUCH
RAIN FALLS IN THE COMING WEEKS... WILL BE THE SHORT HAY SUPPLY AND
THE EFFECT THIS WILL HAVE ON FARMERS ACROSS THE STATE.
.PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY OVER THE NEXT WEEK... BRINGING MANY CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE
RAINFALL TO THE AREA. A BRIEF SHOT OF LIGHT RAIN TONIGHT WILL GIVE
WAY TO A LARGER SYSTEM AND CHANCES FOR HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OVER
THE WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL LOOK TO BE LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS COULD EXPECT TO SEE A
QUARTER TO A HALF AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION. AS WE MOVE TOWARD
CHRISTMAS DAY... ANOTHER SHOT AT PRECIPITATION COMES IN. CONFIDENCE
IS LESS CERTAIN IN THE STRENGTH OF THIS WEATHER SYSTEM AND CHANCES
FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL REMAIN LOW AS THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL
DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS FAR OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY OVER THE COMING WEEK AS VERY UNSETTLED
WEATHER PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR A WIDE RANGE OF THERMOMETER READINGS.
EXPECT THE WEEKEND TO BE QUITE WARM AS SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AHEAD OF
POWERFUL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WARM AIR INTO THE MID 50S
AND LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON SUNDAY... THE
MERCURY WILL FALL DRAMATICALLY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
AREA AND TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS WE GET INTO
CHRISTMAS DAY... EXPECT TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 40S FOR HIGHS AND
FALLING BELOW FREEZING AT NIGHT. THIS WILL LEAVE THE OPPORTUNITY FOR
LIGHT SNOWFALL ON CHRISTMAS IF PRECIPITATION IS TO OCCUR.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK... PROVIDED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION
CENTER... FOR THE PERIOD FRIDAY DECEMBER 28TH THROUGH THURSDAY
JANUARY 3RD... INDICATES A WEATHER PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.
THE LONG RANGE WINTER OUTLOOK FOR JANUARY THROUGH MARCH OF 2008...
ISSUED BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER... CONTINUES TO INDICATE A
WEATHER PATTERN CONDUCIVE FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IF THIS FORECAST HOLDS TRUE... THE RECENT
IMPROVEMENTS MADE IN THE DROUGHT WILL CONTINUE AND IMPACTS WILL EASE
WITH TIME.
.QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...
IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS ABOUT THIS DROUGHT INFORMATION
PLEASE CONTACT...
TONY EDWARDS
BRIAN SCHOETTMER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
JACKSON KENTUCKY 41339
COUNTY SPECIFIC MESSAGE:
TONY.EDWARDS@NOAA.GOV
BRIAN.SCHOETTMER@NOAA.GOV
.RELATED WEB SITES...
THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES ARE AVAILABLE FOR FURTHER WEATHER AND
DROUGHT INFORMATION (ADDRESSES SHOULD BE IN LOWER CASE)...
LOCAL WEATHER...CLIMATE AND WATER INFO...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/JACKSONKY
ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION...
USGS - HTTP://WATER.USGS.GOV
COE - HTTP://WWW.MVR.USACE.ARMY.MIL
NOAA DROUGHT INFORMATION CENTER...
U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/INDEX.HTML
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...
USDA NATIONAL AGRICULTURAL STATISTICS SERVICE...
MIDWEST CLIMATE WATCH...
HTTP://MRCC.SWS.UIUC.EDU/CLIWATCH/WATCH.HTM
UNIVERSITY OF KENTUCKY AGRICULTURAL WEATHER CENTER...
HTTP://WWWAGWX.CA.UKY.EDU/DROUGHT.HTML
KENTUCKY DIVISION OF WATER...
KENTUCKY DIVISION OF FORESTRY...
NWS OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ER/OHRFC/
.ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...
THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING NOAA/S
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER... THE
USDA... STATE AND REGIONAL CENTER CLIMATOLOGISTS AND THE NATIONAL
DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER.
INFORMATION FOR THIS STATEMENT HAS BEEN GATHERED FROM NWS AND FAA
OBSERVATIONS SITES... COOPERATIVE NETWORK STATIONS...THE USGS...AND
THE U.S. ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS.
.NEXT ISSUANCE...
THIS PRODUCT WILL NEXT BE UPDATED BY FRIDAY DECEMBER 28TH.
SCHOETTMER
***************
Copyright 2007 DataSwitch Information Services. All rights reserved.
This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or
redistributed. Any unauthorized redistribution of this message
without the express written and signed consent of a DataSwitch
officer constitutes a copyright violation and should be reported to
admin@dataswitch.com -- DataSwitch Information Services, Inc.
You have received this bulletin as part of your paid subscription
to a DataSwitch service. To unsubscribe, send request with your
account name to admin@dataswitch.com; or call 269-983-6271.
***************
